Kamis, 19 Juni 2014

Just Take the Surest Trades

Lots of traders sit in front of their workstations grinding it out, averaging, say, $4 a trade. Others look for better trades looking to have an average trade of $200 or more.

Both ways work. It's just that one is a lot more labour intensive. My Dad taught me from a young age to use brain not brawn. It took a lot of years to understand how that relates to trading. If the average winning trade is too small then a large loser will wipe out too many winners. Trading is a matter of math and the math has to work.

Using Flo, I have a good handle on the math. My backtesting, while no guarantee, gives me a strong reference of what I can expect going forward. If a picture has an 80% probability and the trade location is correct then my expectation of an average profit larger than $200 can lead to the correct trade profile to be CP.

The trade below is one such picture. The trade is an Outside In trade with the exit at the EMA, a mean reversion trade.

My Flobot trades are a reflection of what I do as a discretionary trader, taking the "best" trades.


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